How many times have we heard that the war on terror is a “generational struggle,” and that the United States will have to prepare for decades of war and increased security? Well, an opposing view is presented in the recently published National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2025.
It says, “A wave of terror is a cycle of activity–which can last up to 40 years–characterized by expansion and contraction phases.” This concept was developed by David C. Rapoport to compare Islamic extremism with previous terrorist waves (such as anarchism and Marxism). The projection goes on to say that, “Al-Qa’ida’s weaknesses–unachievable strategic objectives, inability to attract broad-based support, and self-destructive actions–might cause it to decay sooner than most people think.”
So, if al-Qaeda is going, who will replace it? Perhaps the answer lies in the deafening silence found their most recent tape. While The Base was busy writing epithets against the President-elect, another group was busy causing terror. It seems Lashkar-e-Taiba may already be replacing the aging terrorist group. If so, let’s hope that Pakistan continues to be such a strong supporter in the war on terror.
