A Demographic Hegemony

It has become popular to refer to the United States as an “aging empire.” We’re told daily that America’s relative power in the world is diminishing, that the European Union and the BRIC countries are going to surpass Uncle Sam, or at least rein him in. Personally, I don’t believe it. It also seems as though Neil Howe and Richard Jackson at the Washington Post aren’t too sure either. In a recent article they point out that by 2020 Western Europe and Japan will be in a state of “hyper-aging.” Their summary is, “The challenge facing America by the 2020s is not the inability of a weakening United States to lead the developed world. It is the inability of the other developed nations to be of much assistance — or indeed, the likelihood that many will be in dire need of assistance themselves.” The other boogey-balancers, the BRIC countries, don’t fare much better. Russia is already an aged nation, and by 2050 China will have almost twice as many people above age 50 than below age 20. India’s population is young (in all honesty, India is the only challenger nation that I ever see posing a challenge). I agree all too well with the conclusion of the Washington Post article,

“All told, population trends point inexorably toward a more dominant U.S. role in a world that will need us more, not less. For the past several years, the U.N. has published a table ranking the world’s 12 most populous countries over time. In 1950, six of the top 12 were developed countries. In 2000, only three were. By 2050, only one developed country will remain — the United States, still in third place. By then, it will be the only country among the top 12 with a historical commitment to democracy, free markets and civil liberties. Abraham Lincoln once called this country “the world’s last best hope.” Demography suggests that this will remain true for some time to come.”

Tagged as: Hegemony