I just have a quick thought for today. I recently finished reading Minxin Pei’s article, “Will the Chinese Communist Party Survive the Crisis?” It is an excellent, nuanced article that is an emotional roller coaster ride to read. Click Here and the article will open in a new window, go read it.
Back? Good. I love the way the article first makes you think communism will do fine (like the slow clanking noises).
It might seem reasonable to expect that challenges from the disaffected urban middle class, frustrated college graduates, and unemployed migrants will constitute the principal threat to the party’s rule. If those groups were in fact to band together in a powerful coalition, then the world’s longest-ruling party would indeed be in deep trouble. But that is not going to happen.
Then it goes on to make the true point that:
China’s nonideological ruling elites have stuck with the party because it has been paying them off. But when economic hardship ends the easy handouts, the elites’ support and loyalty to the system can no longer be taken for granted. Rising social discontent may not be enough to force the party out of power, but it might be sufficient to tempt some members of the elite to exploit the situation to their own political advantage. Such political entrepreneurs could use populist appeals to weaken their rivals and, in the process, open up divisions within the party’s seemingly unified upper ranks. Any of these sources of elite dissension could lead to confusion and turmoil within the Chinese state’s repressive apparatus, rendering it less capable of containing social instability and thus creating a vicious cycle of events that could result in progressive destabilization.
That’s the part of the roller coaster that goes down and loop-de-loops. What a phenomenal read.
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Another great piece from Foreign Affairs. The vast majority of outside observers still believe the Chinese state to be an extremely self-confident, monolithic regime. This article hopefully can inform more that the regime is very much afraid of internal threats, and has relied for years on economic growth to keep the masses relatively fat and happy. Deng Xioping’s economic reforms have undoubtedly prolonged the life of the CCP.
I remain skeptical predictions of an imminent collapse of the CCP. As I wrote last month:
Here then, is my word of caution: be careful with predictions of gloom and doom. While it may be popular to speculate on the upcoming Chinese crisis, remember that the CCP has a history of surviving such crises. Indeed, one could say that the Party thrives in them. As both the blizzards of ‘08 and the Hunan Earthquake have shown, the CCP is adept at taking potential sources of criticism and transforming them into events of national solidarity. When making forecasts of China’s future, this should be the first outcome predicted.
To be clear: this post is not arguing that against the possibility of a doom and gloom type scenario. However, if you are proposing that the Chinese reaction to future disasters be one of incompetence and discord, know that the burden of proof lies firmly in your hands.
No new thoughts. Whole Central and Eastern Europe “communism” in 1970´s and 1980´s was based on “social contract” between people and a communist party - limitation of political/economic freedom for social (welfare) stability. With economic problems in late 80´s the problem was born…