I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Earth is getting warmer. A lot of people are doing their best to try and fight global warming, I wish them well. Nevertheless, I try to hope for the best and plan for the worst, so this is what I’ve been thinking about.
Framework
The Institution of Mechanical Engineers last week released a report called Climate Change: Adapting to the Inevitable. Their belief is that the status quo will continue until 2040 when the climate will change noticeably and people will begin to take action. That will lead to a 5 degree difference by 2100. I’m not a meteorologist, but I do know something about politics and international relations. I also firmly believe that all change brings opportunities as well as challenges, a view that mitigation researchers often overlook.
Developing Countries
Developing countries, especially island nations and those along the equator will suffer the worst. Most climate change adaptation focuses on the struggles these countries will face. See the IPCC report, “Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability” and “Climate change adaptation,” a part of Eldis that periodically has interesting reports. Many island nations could cease to exist. As I said, there will be opportunities too; last year it was reported that the middle east could see a 50% increase in rainfall, which would be fantastic for the region. Nevertheless, in the vast majority of cases, we should expect to see developing countries face even more challenges in, well, developing. I suspect we’ll see even more migration that we do now.
Developed Countries
Developed countries are a different ball game. Overwhelmingly in temperate or cold climates, developed countries will face a different set of challenges. As resources that have long been frozen over will be accessible, I suspect we’ll see Russia, and to a lesser extent Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, the U.S. (in Alaska), and Denmark (through Greenland) see some gains in addition to the extensive costs that have been better explained elsewhere. I wrote about the challenges of an Arctic passage last week, and it does seem that NATO and other planners are taking all of this into account. Increased immigration will pose challenges here as well.
Thoughts?
I don’t normally touch on politically charged topics, because emotion can overpower rational thought, and people get angry instead of thoughtful. So, I guess what I’m saying is, I hope I haven’t infuriated anyone. What do you think? Will climate change have other side effects that I haven’t foreseen? Are there other challenges or opportunities that I’ve missed? Let me know!
{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Developed countries will have the added opportunities of economic growth in "greener" technologies. Once people start to really care about "global warming" and start focusing R&D; and creativity, not to mention money, onto the problem, some amazing technologies are bound to be discovered, refined, marketed.
Of course, that's assuming that all the doomsday predictions that by then it will be too late and all of mankind will be on the brink of extinction are wrong. =)
You’ve touched on a hot button of mine, only because I am a meteorologist. Science was founded by questioning and skepticism; now, global warming skeptics are chastised.
I could go on and on, with many facts, thoughts, cites, examples, etc. However, I’ll just pose a couple of questions.
1. If the best scientist/meteorologist cannot get a 24 hour forecast 100% correct, why do we think a long-term forecast is accurate?
2. In regards to climate change studies, are the data and methodologies valid?
3. Mount Tambora’s ash cloud aided to 1816’s “year without a summer” (google it). Can humans impact climate to this extent?
Thought-provoking, as always! Keep up the solid blog.
Great comments! Here are two quick links for ya’ll.
@amylynr - Apparently Tom Friedman’s new book is about that green technological revolution, here’s an interesting interview with him: http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html?docId=1000284751#FriedZak
@Brooks - It’s good to have a meteorologist’s point of view, thanks (as always). Speaking of that volcano, did you see this article in Rolling Stone? It’s good reading. http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/12343892/can_dr_evil_save_the_world
Anyway, thanks again for the comments.
Nice article to read and imagine the possibilities. Civilization is our great experiment; I don’t think we should take drastic action until we are sure what’s occurring. Another question I’ll pose…..
If you take a global climate model, input historical data from x years ago and run the model to present, is it accurate?
Or is it getting colder? Apparently, more and more scientist are saying the whole cult movement was a gross over reaction.
I’ll try to come back and post a link to a article that came out last week about studies from earth and space that showed — or proved — that the earth was going through a NATURAL change.
I think it will be back to the drawing board real soon on the whole issue.