It looks like we’ll have some interesting news coming out of Panama this weekend. The tiny isthmus that could is having its elections on Sunday and, unlike in many Latin America countries, the pro-American candidate is slighted to win.
Panama is a bit different than many Latin countries; the U.S. created the country (or at the very least, helped them rebel from Colombia), we built the canal (that has since become their life blood), we held on to a huge stretch of land for far longer than the Panamanians would have liked, and then we toppled their government in 1989. The country is currently governed by a center-left party with a centrist President. He’s led the country through double digit growth for much of the last decade and paved the way for the canal expansion project.
Panama’s election is divided between Balbina Herrera and Ricardo Martinelli. Herrera is from the far left of the party and is rumored to be supported by Chavez’s money. She’s not nearly as anti-American as others on the far left who Chavez has supported, but she was closely tied to Noriega and is related to many of our old political enemies there. Martinelli, on the other hand, is a cross between Geroge Bush and Barack Obama (that’s what I said, alright). He’s a center right (in olden days we’d have said, “compassionate conservative”) candidate running on a strong change/anti-corruption campaign (ala “yes we can”). I strongly suggest you read this article from the Brookings Institution if you’re interested.
In any case, it looks like Martinelli is going to win (he’s up 10-15 points with three days until the election), in an odd twist. The last few years have seen a turn to the left in most of Latin America, perhaps the Panamanians are an exception. I think it’s especially interesting in light of the fact that we signed a free trade agreement that we have yet to ratify (i.e., we’re sort of jerking them around). It could be that Obama’s changes have actually begun to change the way the world looks at us. Maybe we’re going to be loved again. Or, more likely it’s all based on domestic issues specific to Panama. I’ll let you decide.
