Can Only Ahmadinejad Go to the US?

I spent part of the weekend reading U.S.-Iranian Engagement: The View from Iran, an interesting policy briefing by the International Crisis Group.  The piece makes for interesting reading.  Some of it is a bit disheartening but still enlightening.  One part especially caught my eye, it says, “precisely due to his militant image and conservative pedigree, a Nixon-in-China* syndrome makes Ahmadinejad well suited to break the taboo should he wish to.” 

It gives several good reasons:

1. Ahmadinejad has excellent conservative credentials, they’ll follow him and reformers won’t oppose a move like this
2. Opposition to America has been one of the pillars of the Iranian revolution, changing it will shake the regime to the core, and could call into question its legitimacy.  Ahmadinejad could ensure that opposition continue, just in a more organized fashion (i.e., even though we had diplomatic relations with the USSR, there was always opposition).
3. Iranian presidents don’t have a lot of leeway with fundamental policies; Iran’s supreme leader would have to ok any change, and Ahmadinejad is more likely to have the trust of the religious establishment
4. The chief reason Iran’s last president, the reformist Khatami, failed to reestablish ties was that he was largely constrained by conservatives

It’s a view that I hadn’t heard before, but one that seems quite logical.  (Another pearl of wisdom from the piece is that if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, it will be in the hands of the revolutionary guard, which could completely change the domestic political system…interesting stuff.)

*Nixon-in-China (from Wikipedia):

Because Nixon had an undisputed reputation of being a staunch anti-Communist, he was largely immune to any criticism of being "soft on Communism" by figures on the right of American politics. The phrase "Nixon going to China" is thus an analogy that refers to the unique ability that hardline politicians have to challenge political taboos and third-rail issues. Only a proven hardline right-wing politician can succeed in challenging a conservative sacred cow and vice versa for left-wingers.

Tagged as: Iran